From International Press Correspondence, Vol. 1 No. 17, 16 December 1921, pp. 138–140.
Transcribed & marked up by Einde O’Callaghan for the Marxists’ Internet Archive
Just now the world press is busy with the Washington Conference. What will be the outcome? Many predictions and conjectures have already been ventured and discussed. All are partisan in nature and in many cases bigoted and biased. Although most of them pretend to be fair and impartial, one can see at once by reading a few lines whether they are pro-English, pro-American, pro-Chinese or pro-Japanese. But what I wish to say in this article is pro-Communist – from the standpoint of a Communist. However, being a Japanese, I may appear to other nationalities pro-Japanese. This is inevitable, because I know Japan and the Japanese better than a non-Japanese.
The Washington Conference was initiated by Harding for the purpose of preparing world opinion for the coming world war. It is intended to convince the American people that war with Japan is something inevitable. The Washington Conference is a smokescreen for the American masses to conceal the real aim and purpose of American capitalism and imperialism and to prepare for the next war centered in the Pacific.
One of Harding’s chief objects in calling the Washington Conference is to do away with the obnoxious Jap-Briton alliance. Will the Conference accomplish it through the pressure of public opinion supported by the press of the English-speaking countries? The alliance is a great menace to America. But it is indispensable to Britain as well as to Japan. During and after the war of 1914–18 it was the greatest necessity to England, and in spite of the English public, press and some spokesmen denouncing it as an obstacle and prejudicial to the welfare of England and to the cultivation of a closer friendship with America, British Imperial statesmen felt the need of some such alliance with Japan. Lloyd George still wants it, but he does not like to lose the American “dollar friendship”. Thus he suggested a triple alliance of England, America and Japan. The Washington statesmen flatly rejected this idea.
Why does England want the alliance to continue? This rather awkward question never appeared in the English press. England won the war and gathered the largest booty and above all crushed her deadly rival – Germany. But lo! There arose a still greater rival than the one she had just annihilated – America. For the first time in the history of modern England, the Englishman began to fear Uncle Sam. Not only has his pound been shrinking, but he has also lost his long-maintained naval standard. He cannot retain the two-power standard in naval strength. Thus the recent war weakened England’s position as a naval power. Moreover, it has grave difficulties in Ireland and India. England cannot by any means lose its American friend, but at the same time it is not well assured of its safety in losing Japan’s friendly relations. It means immediate danger of weakening its grip on India, which is at present in a most revolutionary condition. For the sake of India alone it cannot afford to trade the alliance for a vague American understanding, unless Uncle Sam cancels the debt that John Bull owes him. There has been much talk about a British-American alliance. Those who hold the idea of the white domination of the world will support it full-heartedly. But the English statesmen are shrewder than the sentimentalists of white supremacy. They see that this alliance practically means the submission of the pound to the dollar.
The abrogation of the Jap-British alliance will certainly weaken Japanese imperialism. It would mean that the path of the Indian revolution would be easier than it is at present. However, the loser by the non-renewal of the said alliance would be England rather than Japan. Japan would have to submit to the American policy in the Far East, but that does not mean that it would be beaten in the coming war. Besides, non-renewal of the alliance does not necessarily mean war. Japan can wait until the alliance of white domination is broken. For, as Trotsky predicted, England must meet the dollar in the oil supply. England will not yield to the gradual shrinkage of the pound without a struggle. Thus English statesmen have a very hard task in the diplomatic sphere. England can scarcely retain both the friendship of the dollar and the alliance with Japan. But at the same time it cannot very well expose itself to the danger of strengthening the already unmanageable Indian revolutionary movement by gaining the hostility of Japan in siding openly with America. Its possessions on the Pacific are great and many. Australia and New Zealand cannot as yet stand on their own feet without English protection, and its sphere of influence in China will be weakened rather than strengthened through its friendship with America.
But if the Conference is successful in destroying the said alliance in some way or other, what will be the prospect in the Far East? Japan will not take up arms against America single-handed. Supposing America and England agree in the joint exploitation of China, ousting Japan and crushing its aspirations in the Far East, which, from the American standpoint, I think impossible. But supposing this to be the case, then China will be more thoroughly exploited by the combined power of the dollar and the pound. Naturally enough this will not satisfy the Chinese statesmen, although China asserted before the Conference that it is prepared to accept and apply the “Open Door Policy” to all parts of the Chinese Republic without exception.
It is already sufficiently awakened to utilize the Shantung affair to its advantage and make it a national educational issue. It will not be satisfied with driving out the Japanese alone, the English and French will soon have to follow. This will be a chance for Japan to regain its prestige in China. The Conference may repudiate the Lansing-lshii Agreement regarding Japan’s special interests in China, but the geographical, radical as well as linguistic advantages remain all the same. If America becomes the master of exploited China, as it already is of Cuba, Haiti and Mexico and to some extent of Central and South America, the Chinese will use the same weapon against it as they successfully used against Japan and already threaten to use against England if it does not give up its alliance with Japan! The chief and most effective weapon against an aggressive power is the boycott of its goods. Japan will make good use of such an opportunity. Its people can speak Chinese without much difficulty and can travel inland as a Chinese and above all trade without the comprador (intermediary) on whom foreign merchants are almost invariably obliged to depend – even in the treaty ports!
The Washington Conference will accomplish nothing but will accelerate the next war. It may agree on some sort of slowing down in the competitive naval race, but that means very little, for the next war will not depend much upon big ships but on submarines, airplanes and gas. As I have already intimated, the conference is an American organ used to crystallize the war sentiment against Japan and represent it as the Prussia of the Far East.
The Washington Conference will not solve any of those grave problems hanging over the Pacific – such as the immigration question, racial discrimination, and the exploitation of China. No power concerned will ever be able to solve the problems of the Far East by conferences or even by war. But as long as the capitalist system continues, war will remain the only method of liquidating such disputes.
A very curious phase of the present Conference is the representation of the Far Eastern countries. Japan is, of course, fully represented while only part of China is represented. The southern half of China is not represented at all in spite of the vigorous protests from the Canton Government of Sun Yat-sen, while Russia is entirely ignored. The Far Eastern Republic as well as the Soviet government demanded representation but Harding ignored both. Of the nine nations at the Conference, only two, China and Japan, are from the Far East. All others are mere intruders in the Far East. To discuss the Far Eastern problems at such a conference is at first glance ridiculous and any agreement will never be satisfactorily carried out. The Russians, Siberians and Chinese of the south will object and will not consider themselves bound to anything which the Conference may decide. China is the greatest market in the world. Every nation wants it as its own market. But since they all want it, they will have to come to some kind of an agreement. A joint exploitation of China would be the best solution of the problem. But America is a newcomer which has not as yet established any sphere of influence. Although the Americans have rich concessions, they cannot utilize them on account of the prior concessionaires.
China is now well divided among the different nations – Japan being the latest intruder. Thus the powers want that Japan get out of China. But it will not get out as quickly and easily as some desire. It will say that it will get out if the English and the French get out of Hong Kong, Wei-hai-wei, Cochinchina and Annam which places the latter two before a disagreeable alternative.
There is some hope of avoiding the coming conflict, namely, the progress of the Russian Revolution. Soviet Russia is now successfully recuperating after long and weary civil and foreign wars. The Russian Revolution is not static. It has been advancing successfully in all directions. Japan has also been profoundly influenced by the Russian Revolution. Workers and peasants are deeply impressed. The fall of the Czar and the Kaiser together with the defeat of German militarism made the Japanese workers and peasants see that their militarism is also not invulnerable. The yellow labor unions have changed into red or revolutionary unions and demand control of industry. A Japanese Communist Party has been formed and is working hard in spite of the rigid police and gendarmerie oppression. Strikes, sabotage and labor demonstrations of gigantic nature are occurring from time to time with increased force and success. They will not be led into a blind alley as easily as in the past.
Japan as a whole has been awakened politically and socially. The people today hate militarism and above all conscription. Evaders and slackers are increasing enormously every year. Even the youths of the upper and middle classes, who until the last war desired to become officers as the best calling, have begun to evade conscription. For the last few years the army authorities have been having a hard time in. getting recruits for military colleges and academies. In the last few years so many young and promising officers have left the service that the authorities adopted a rule which will deprive those who resign of their military position and pension if they do not have due reason for resignation.
Until very recently, even discussion about reducing the army or navy was a crime and constituted lèse majesté, because the commander of the army and navy is His Majesty – the Emperor! But today reduction of armament is very popular; there is a movement against it led by the ex-minister of justice. “The Japanese people have at last come to realize that militarism will not do much for the welfare of Japan, and now they discredit militarism”, wrote the chief editor of the Oriental Economist, Mr. Tanzan Isibasi. He added, “If the white peoples knew the real present thought of the Japanese youths, they would surely change their attitude toward Japan.”
The Japanese militarists will try hard to convince the people of the inevitability of the coming war. But the youths and workers as well as the peasants will not be misled by them as in the past, because the living corpses of present Europe bear evidence to the awfulness of war. They are already looking toward a new light that shines from Russia. Japan underwent its own political revolution sixty years ago conducted entirely by the youths of that period. The youths of today are awakened to the task of a second revolution – the social revolution.
Two very conspicuous events were recently reported from Japan. One is the assassination of Zenjiro Yasuda, the greatest banker and multimillionaire of Japan, by a labor agitator, because he refused to contribute toward the fund for the labor hall. And still another – Premier Hara assassinated by a railway worker. The revolution of 1868 began with the assassination of Premier Ii Tairo [a political title, held by Li Naosuke at the time] of the Tokugawa Government who was then the sole ruler of Japan. The Japanese youths, workers and peasants will meet the demand of the new age which has been successfully inaugurated in Russia. Our youths and workers will readily adopt Communism and the Soviet system just as their forefathers adopted capitalism sixty years ago. It took over half a century for the French Revolution to travel over to Japan. “But the Russian Bolshevik Revolution,” as Lenin said, “will reach Japan with wireless speed.” No one predicted the French Revolution nor the Russian Revolution. Social revolution of today is a worldwide movement and my prediction, therefore, is not a fantastic but a scientific revolution based upon solid social and economic factors. The capitalistic war, if it comes, will not retard or change the course and progress of the social revolution in Japan, as elsewhere. In all probability the capitalistic war will come sooner than the socialist revolution, because the workers and youths have only started to organize and have as yet little power and influence. As I said above, the Washington Conference will accelerate the future war, thus accelerating the fall of capitalism and imperialism.
Last updated on 13 February 2019